"Different banks quote markets in credit default swaps on sovereigns and they send what we call runs, a list of prices. And I watch this and I see, “9 basis points? That’s low for anything.” And Latvia! It’s very small, it’s very exposed to the Russian economy, and the Russian economy’s volatile. It’s small enough that a meteor could hit it and that would be the end of Latvia. So 9 basis points—it just seems too low. I said: “Why is that?” And it turns out there’s a quirk in the way capital requirement works for European banks, so that it’s actually very profitable for an individual trader at certain European banks to write protection on Latvia. and that’s what caused the price to move to such an irrational level. So you say, “OK, this price isn’t where it should be; I understand why it is where it is; and I understand it probably won’t persist forever."
Learn more about how to short sovereign bonds in the lastest installment from HFM!